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Summary of the Market Update 10/2024

Developments in the Middle East and Africa

GCC and EU will hold the first summit to discuss a partnership that would cover trade and investments, renewable energy, regional security and citizen topics (e.g. visas)
Saudi Arabia and Egypt agreed to deepen trade and investment cooperation, as well as economic integration in the energy, transport, and tourism sector
South Africa's economic growth picked up in the second quarter, supported by higher consumer spending and power availability, but output declines in agriculture, mining and transport meant growth was slightly weaker than expected. GDP expanded 0.4% quarter-on-quarter
Kenya's economy expanded by 4.6% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2024, down from 5.6% in the corresponding quarter of the previous year

- The weekly price average at the end of CW 40 is at $88.45 per barrel, which represents an increase of 2.6% from the prior week, an increase of 2.8% from the prior month, and a decrease of -21.2% from the prior year
- Forecasts an average of $128bn in annual capital expenditure will be needed for the airline industry to reach net-zero emissions by 2050
- Emirates: adds fourth daily flight to Johannesburg
- Etihad Cargo and SF Airlines: enter joint venture to strengthen UAE-China trade
- Egypt Airshow: EgyptAir Group signed deals with Airbus
- In August 2024, global schedule reliability improved by 0.7 percentage points M/M to 52.8%. Schedule reliability in 2024 has stabilized within the 50%-55% range. While it is disappointingly low, the minimal volatility so far this year does give shippers a relatively good idea of what to expect month to month. On a Y/Y level, schedule reliability in August 2024 was -10.2 percentage points lower. The average delay for LATE vessel arrivals deteriorated, albeit marginally, increasing by 0.03 days M/M to 5.28 days. This figure was only surpassed by the pandemic highs of 2021-2022. On a Y/Y level, the August 2024 figure was 0.62 days higher
- Schedule reliability on the Middle East-Asia trade lane decreased by -1.6 percentage points M/M in July/August 2024 and reached 32.5%. Schedule reliability on the Africa-Asia trade lane increased by 2.6 percentage points M/M and reached 40.8% in July/August 2024. In July/August 2024, schedule reliability on the Middle East-Europe trade lane increased by 1.4 percentage points M/M to 50.8%. Schedule reliability on the Africa-Europe trade lane increased by 1.5 percentage points M/M in July/August 2024, reaching 61.5%
- The last vessel attack in the Bab el Mandeb Strait was on 1 Oct 2024, with vessels routed around COGH still. Only a few niche carriers sail through Bab el Mandeb Strait
- US Port strikes which usually cause major disruption called off quickly in less than a week, this reduces the exponential impact of this strike considerably. 1 week of the strike results in a one-and-a-half-month backlog